Fire Outlook

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Storm Prediction Center
SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
  • SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1255 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
    
    Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
    
    ...Synopsis...
    An upper-level trough will dig into the southern Great Basin/Four
    Corners on Thursday. A modest subtropical jet stream will develop
    across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a
    strong low pressure system will deepen in the vicinity of the Black
    Hills. A fairly strong cold front will progress southward into the
    central Plains.
    
    ...Southern New Mexico into central High Plains...
    This region will generally exist in between the developing southern
    stream jet and the digging trough to the northwest for most of the
    period. Some increase in mid-level winds may occur by late
    afternoon, however. A very dry airmass is expected. RH could
    approach single digits locally, but will more broadly be 10-20%.
    This is forecast despite increasing mid/upper clouds with time. The
    overall expectation is for elevated to near critical fire weather
    conditions. Sustained critical could occur locally, but confidence
    highlighting where this will occur remains low.
    
    ...Far eastern Wyoming into Nebraska/South Dakota...
    As the surface low deepens, winds of 15-20 mph will be possible. RH
    values of 10-20% will occur during the afternoon. The strongest
    mid-level flow will generally remain farther west of the region
    which should limit the potential for sustained critical conditions.
    Further, the cold front is forecast to progress southward which will
    lead to a stark shift to northerly winds and greater RH. Given the
    strength of the front, the more southern frontal solutions have been
    weighted higher in this forecast.
    
    ...Southern Appalachians into Mid-Atlantic...
    The persistent dry return flow pattern will continue another day.
    Temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s F will again promote a broad
    area of reduced RH values during the afternoon. 25-35% will again be
    common, but areas near 20% are still possible. Winds will still be
    somewhat weak at 10-15 mph, but very dry fuels will still support a
    elevated fire weather threat.
    
    ..Wendt.. 04/15/2026
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
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